Allah Wasaai, a 52-year-old farmer from Rangpur in Pakistan’s Punjab province, has experienced the perils of climate change personally. In 2022, she and her family were forced to abandon their house, located near the Chenab River in the city of Multan, after catastrophic floods destroyed everything they owned. Now they have relocated to Muzaffargarh, and when I spoke to them in July were dealing with excessive heat, an abrupt contrast to the monsoon rains they would usually expect at this time of the year.
“The weather patterns have changed severely,” Wasaai said. “Either we confront severe rains that drown our homes, or we suffer from a lack of rainfall, impacting our life and work. We never live a normal life.”
Anthropogenic global warming is making heatwaves hotter, more frequent and longer lasting, and causing drastic disruptions in weather patterns as well as natural disasters. Although Pakistan produces less than one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, according to the Global Climate Risk Index of 2021. A report by the Asian Development Bank shows that temperatures in Pakistan are expected to rise by an average of three to five degrees Celsius by the end of the century, potentially even four to six degrees if global carbon emissions keep rising. The country is also expected to face increased variability of river flows due to inconsistent precipitation and accelerated melting of glaciers.
Pakistani Punjab has been severely impacted by climate-related disasters in recent years. The city of Multan in particular – already reputed to be one of the hottest places in the world – has suffered extraordinary heatwaves and irregular rainfall. The summer of 2022 brought extreme heat across Punjab, with temperatures rising above 45 degrees Celsius in numerous districts, endangering the lives of millions. The incidence of heat-related illnesses, respiratory issues and water-borne diseases also rose, while agriculture, livestock and small businesses suffered. Then, unusually heavy monsoon rains caused severe flooding, wreaking havoc on infrastructure and agriculture while devastating millions of lives and livelihoods.
Globally, 2023 was the warmest year in human history, and temperatures have continued breaking records into 2024. Punjab has not had any respite, especially as a severe drought in 2023 reduced crop yields and water availability. Such developments have added pressure on public spending, which is already badly stretched in Pakistan, and authorities are facing increased calls to replace damaged infrastructure and provide subsidies and relief.
Agriculture in Punjab is particularly vulnerable to intense heat, with local farmers struggling to cope with both high temperatures and water scarcity. This has serious implications for food security and the economy; agriculture employs about half of Pakistan’s people, and accounts for nearly a quarter of its Gross Domestic Product.
To make things worse, “all seasons are disturbed,” Asad Imran, the director of sustainable agriculture and food programmes at the World Wide Fund for Nature Pakistan (WWF-Pakistan), noted. “We’re jumping right from winter to summer, without a gradual increase in temperature.” Imran explained that, “Because of these disturbed patterns, sometimes the environment suitable for crops in June and July is now shifting to April and May. This is shifting the farming calendar as well.”
Severe heat is also causing higher rates of water evaporation, meaning increased stress on the already limited water sources and irrigation facilities in the region. “Farmers do not know what is happening,” Imran said, “and their traditional knowledge is not enough to cope with these new challenges.”
“Climate change is disproportionately impacting Pakistan’s most vulnerable people, from searing heatwaves to devastating floods,” Mahar Abdul Rehman, an official at the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) in Punjab and the divisional disaster management coordinator of the Multan division, said. That means the poor, and especially poor women, children and elderly people. Rehman emphasised the importance of mitigation and adaptation measures in Multan to address the challenges presented by climate change. “We try to be proactive, preparing for unexpected emergencies and working together with relevant departments like law enforcement, rescue services, agriculture and irrigation to assure efficient disaster management.”
The agriculture department is critical in helping farmers adjust to climate change. Authorities have developed a number of efforts to combat climate change’s impact on agriculture. This includes providing information on climate-resilient agriculture, appropriate irrigation timing to reduce water waste, botanical sprays for sustainable pest management, multi-cropping patterns and balanced fertiliser use in the face of extreme weather conditions. “The primary problem is that locals often cling to traditional practices, making it challenging to convince them to adopt new methods,” Rehman said. “We are working to enhance this through mutual coordination, guiding them on crop protection, irrigation timing and water management to assist them navigate these obstacles.”
Fatima Faraz, a young climate activist based in Peshawar, in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwah to the north, emphasised the destructive impact of heatwaves on Pakistan’s agricultural sector, and the far-reaching consequences for food security in Punjab. “As the population grows, food shortages can lead to malnutrition and diseases, particularly among children,” she noted. Faraz explained that extreme weather phenomena not only affects crop yields but also impair crop quality.
“There are several initiatives introduced by the government of Pakistan to promote healthier and safer agriculture methods,” Faraz said. “However, they are not area-specific. They must be tailored to specific locations.” For instance, she added, “solutions for Multan’s farmers should address their unique needs and challenges.”
Severe heatwaves now affect swaths of the region with frightening regularity, putting millions at risk of heat-related illnesses including heat fatigue, skin infections and heat stroke. Punjab is home to more than half of Pakistan’s people, and has a population of close to 128 million. Dermatologists have issued warnings as intense heatwaves threaten skin health across Pakistan. Poor and vulnerable groups are facing the brunt of the problem, with many people suffering from skin diseases and unable to receive adequate medical attention.
“We have minimal electricity, and the intense heat has produced rashes on our skin,” said Shameem, a 38-year-old mother of nine in Multan. “But we can’t afford to go to private hospitals, and government facilities don’t treat us adequately, leading to infections.” Shameem and her family have been dealing with skin diseases as a result of high heat and humidity. Worsening water quality and food insecurity also have a host of indirect health consequences. Warmer temperatures and higher humidity levels can also expand the environments where mosquitos that carry malaria and dengue thrive.
Heat stress is the product of many factors such as humidity, lack of hydration and lack of fitness. It causes such a range of harms that projecting its long-term effects with any precision is difficult. Faced with higher heat, the human body has to work harder to maintain a healthy internal temperature. This strains the cardiovascular system and increases the risk of numerous negative health effects – which, in extreme cases, can include heart and kidney failure.
It is difficult for experts to pin down how climatic shifts and rising temperatures will affect human health and well-being on a wider regional scale – particularly in Punjab, where huge numbers of people are already suffering but data is scarce. As with many things climate-related, the harms and risks are particularly severe in places like Multan that are the least able to respond. Healthcare providers in the region are increasingly alarmed by the effects on their patients as heat and other challenges are becoming more commonplace, throwing into question the ability of hospitals to continue providing care during extreme weather events.
Shameem and a few of her older family members were injured in a work-related incident in July, but their wounds remain untreated. “We went to the government hospital, and they only gave us povidone-iodine and directed us to keep the cut open for healing,” she said. “However, due to the excessive heat and now humidity, we are unable to recover fully.”
According to Rehman, the PDMA has been taking steps to reduce the insidious effects of heatwaves on local communities. In order to provide relief, the agency set up camps and cooling stations in public spaces to provide breaks from the scorching heat. Separate emergency wards are being built in hospitals to handle heat-related cases and to ensure that people impacted receive quick and adequate medical attention.
In addition to these measures, Rehman said, raising awareness is crucial to combat the impact of heatwaves in Multan. His team uses a variety of strategies to spread information, such as social media campaigns, distributing pamphlets in offices and public spaces, and collaboration with village-level community groups. Rehman added that in rural areas, where access to information is especially limited, one of the most effective approaches is to work with local mosques to give locals early warnings on heatwaves, floods, or any drastic changes in weather.
But despite the government’s attempts, many residents have received little to no assistance, even after suffering terrible losses. “The government has done nothing to assist us, nor did we expect them to, since they only take benefits from us,” Allah Ditti, a 45-year-old cattle herder in Multan, said. Ditti’s animals, his primary source of income, have also suffered due to the excessive heat. Adverse weather conditions have caused the loss of over 50 of his animals, he said, each valued at approximately PKR 50,000 – roughly USD 180.
“There is constantly a financial burden, and now the weather is becoming more severe each year,” Ditti said. “We don’t know how to cope anymore.” As extreme weather continues to grip Multan and other part of Pakistan, locals like Ditti are left to wonder when they will ever have a pleasant day in their lives.
Understanding how to better protect the most vulnerable in Punjab is crucial. While organisations such as WWF-Pakistan can encourage climate adaptation and mitigation efforts, officials like Imran recognise that the government and other stakeholders play an important role in implementing effective policies and frameworks. A key aim at present is to get a better understanding of how many more people, especially agricultural workers, will be afflicted by heat-related ailments, and how frequent and severe their suffering will be.
The heatwaves of the past few years are a good predictor of the risks that will confront the region in the decades to come. If current levels of global warming are not slowed, the extreme heatwaves many in Punjab are experiencing will simply be the new norm.