Girls outside the NLD's headquarters hold up a picture of Aung San Suu Kyi as election results come in. Rangoon, 1 April 2012. Images: Joseph Allchin
Girls outside the NLD's headquarters hold up a picture of Aung San Suu Kyi as election results come in. Rangoon, 1 April 2012. Images: Joseph Allchin

The shadow of the gun

Despite victory in Burma’s historic by-elections, the NLD faces many daunting obstacles to meaningful change.

Joseph Allchin is a writer and journalist who has spent many years writing about and living in the greater Bay of Bengal region. His critically acclaimed first book, 'Many Rivers One Sea', looks at the politics of extremism in Bangladesh and is out now.

Girls outside the NLD's headquarters hold up a picture of Aung San Suu Kyi as election results come in. Rangoon, 1 April 2012. Images: Joseph Allchin
Girls outside the NLD's headquarters hold up a picture of Aung San Suu Kyi as election results come in. Rangoon, 1 April 2012. Images: Joseph Allchin

If any election was hyped up to supposedly deliver something that it simply could not, this was it. But then the Burmese elections were not usual; this was not a vote on a specific policy or a vote to choose a new government, but more an explosive expression – though arguably in a cynically controlled fashion – of the popular will after nearly a quarter century of its denial.

The by-election was initially for 48 seats in Burma's 664-seat Hluttaw, the national parliament that comprises both upper and lower houses. These seats became available when their previous holders were appointed to ministerial or cabinet roles in the country's executive, forcing them to vacate their parliamentary seats as per the rules of the Burmese system. Given the small number of seats available, these by-elections never really offered the opposition a path to power. Three seats were incontestable because of the ongoing conflict in Burma's northernmost Kachin state.

Interviewed on the day after the polls, President Thein Sein's chief political adviser Ko Ko Hlaing described the elections as a 'test' preceding the 'final exam' at the 2015 general election. 'I think the NLD (National League for Democracy), especially their leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, has shifted their strategy from playing outside the constitutional framework to playing within the rules of the game,' Ko Ko Hliang added. 'It gives [the NLD] an official voice, and one reason for this is [its] confidence in the president.'

Indeed, in November last year the NLD ended a 20-year boycott of official politics largely because of the reforms put in place by former general and current president Thein Sein since he took office in March 2011. Regarding Thein Sein's historic meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi in August 2011, Ko Ko Hlaing said, 'Whenever [Aung San Suu Kyi] describes the President, she sees a very sincere man who is committed to reform. After they met last August, I think they could construct mutual trust and mutual understanding, which is a significant achievement for our democratisation.' That rapport has come as a surprise to many. Thein Sein was always viewed as a moderate but, as Hilary Clinton termed it, few expected him to show such 'courage'.

Ko Ko Hliang also pointed out the contrast between Burma and other countries experiencing democratic transition – for instance those of the Arab Spring – where 'the ruling leaders and the opposition forces never met.' This point is key, because while it is remarkable to have a politician very close to the inner circle of rulers comparing what is happening in Burma to the exuberance of the Arab Spring, the Burmese government is also seeking to distance the two situations. Aung San Suu Kyi is seen to be doing her job properly because she has not fomented street protests, opting instead for more 'conciliatory' tactics.

Burma now looks forward to the 2015 general election, but with the respective leaders of both the government and the opposition now in their mid-sixties, questions remain about their roles beyond that date. Thein Sein is known to have a heart condition, and was even rumoured to be reluctant to take up his current position as a result. When Aung San Suu Kyi was taken ill during her incredibly gruelling election campaign, many hoped it was just the result of exhaustion and nothing more serious.

NLD veteran U Win Tin and others have voiced further misgivings, questioning Thein Sein's grip on power and his control over his own government. Win Tin was sceptical about participating in the by-election mainly due to Burma's constitution and current structure of government, which heavily favour the military and, among other things, grant tremendous power to the National Defence and Security Council of 11 serving or former generals. Many observers have been predicting a backlash from aggrieved military personnel who feel their control ebbing.

However, when asked whether the Council was concerned by the pre-eminence of Aung San Suu Kyi, Ko Ko Hlaing explained that they were not threatened. 'The President is himself the chairman of the Defence and Security Council and this issue [Aung San Suu Kyi's appeal] will be discussed in this committee,' Ko Ko Hlaing said. 'Also, you should remember that 25% of the parliament is represented by the military … plus they can control [and] they can balance the situation in parliament … There are also some provisions in the constitution: in [an] emergency situation the military can intervene according to the law, according to the constitution, so this will guarantee their position.'

Biased game
In 1990 the NLD secured its first landslide electoral victory, though on that occasion they did it with a smaller proportion of votes than this time. Following the 1990 election, the military 'surprised' and dithered before declaring that the country would have to draw up a constitution before the elected party could take power. This, they said, would be done by an assembly in which the NLD would have far smaller representation than the proportionate number of seats it had won in the election. The NLD rejected the process, and the military unilaterally wrote the Burmese constitution that remains effective to this day. The proportion of seats offered to the NLD in that assembly, however, was far larger than the number of seats it will occupy in parliament starting from 23 April, barring any untoward surprises. Looking ahead to 2015, should the NLD want to change the constitution it would require the consent of 75% of the parliament. It is improbable that the NLD will come to control so large a proportion of the parliament. Indeed, the 75% requirement is intended to bolster the military's conservative stance by making constitutional changes very difficult.

However, many in the constituencies that the NLD contested in this by-election had more pressing concerns than any grand political plans. In central Rangoon's Mingalar Taungnyunt, won by Ma Phyu Phyu Thin of the NLD, the Muslim community that comprises about 35% of the district hoped to end what they see as many years of ethnic discrimination. Soe Aung, a 53-year-old Muslim NLD member, said that the Muslim community are regularly denied the identity cards required to complete a host of bureaucratic tasks. Soe Aung says that obtaining one requires a hefty bribe of some 30,000 kyat (approximately USD 37) to the local authorities. He also says that the community has been forbidden from conducting religious ceremonies in their district, forcing them to gather outside the town for Eid celebrations. Such discrimination, according to MP elect Phyu Phyu Thin, affects not just the Muslim but also the Christian and Hindu communities in this traditionally heterogeneous city.

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