Afghanistan: Intensifying violence a setback for hopes for peace

Violence in Afghanistan has intensified since January 2018, with experts predicting a further upswing. The increased attacks may reverse the hopeful trend of last year which saw a nine percent decrease in civilian casualties. In the month of April 2018, a strike carried out by the nascent Afghan Air Force attacked civilian targets, including a religious school (madrassa).

Himal Southasian asked Thomas Ruttig, noted analyst and founding director of Afghanistan Analysts Network, to comment on recent developments.

Update: A UN report released on 7 May 2018 has confirmed that 30 children were killed and 51 injured in an Afghan air strike in April 2018 in the northeastern province of Kunduz.

Himal Southasian: After a significant decline in civilian casualties last year, attacks in March and April seem to suggest an upsurge in violence. Do you see this as presaging an increase in violence?

Thomas Ruttig: Unfortunately, yes. Usually, after the Afghan New Year on 21 March, the fighting picks up with better weather. This is despite the fact that one can't really talk about a winter lull anymore. In winter, activity keeps up in the cities, including Kabul. The winter weather does not disrupt urban terrorist networks. We already have large-scale activity in provinces such as Farah in the west, Kunduz and Jowzjan in the north and Ghazni in the southeast. Not much of this is reported abroad. In Kandahar and Helmand, in the warmer south, there was larger scale fighting over the winter months.