Thus, many in Pakistan believe that the US and NATO drawdown will be a victory for the Taliban as a whole. The aforementioned document, leaked to the Pakistani press, states that the Afghan Taliban will continue to provide strategic depth to Pakistan-based militants. The Taliban, inspired by a borderless ummah, consider state boundaries irrelevant. Militant Islamists are to be supported wherever they struggle. The report adds that with the “the departure of the US troops, the TTP and its multiple partners will pursue their ‘jihad’ with renewed vigour under the banner of setting up a true Islamic Caliphate in Pakistan.”

Under Taliban rule, Afghanistan allowed Pakistan’s sectarian organisations to operate bases and training facilities on Afghan soil. During his 1997-1999 tenure, current Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif attempted a crackdown on sectarian outfits only to have his government’s efforts scuttled by none other than Taliban forces and their allies in Pakistan. Escape routes were likely organised by operatives within the Pakistani establishment, particularly from powerful intelligence agencies.

Presidential elections in April represent a major part of Afghanistan’s ongoing transition period, but due to prevailing uncertainties, particularly related to security, Pakistan and other countries in the region are likely to view new developments with trepidation. The polls face several challenges, including ensuring fairness and acceptance of the results, and forging consensus among the country’s ethnic diversity. The danger of political violence is ever-present, and governance patterns are marked by nepotism, weak rule of law, exclusionary patronage networks and corruption. Elections that ensure the participation of all groups and an orderly transfer of power would do much to stabilise the country, and neutrality on the part of the US and other foreign powers is essential for the outcome to have legitimacy in the eyes of Afghans. However, serious questions hang over the elections in terms of how the Taliban will respond and whether they can be included in the political process.

This is perhaps the major threat to an orderly transition in the country. Meanwhile, as the Taliban mobilise against elections, talks between the Pakistan-based leadership of the Afghan Taliban and the governments of the US and Afghanistan are going nowhere. All parties are treating the future as a game of chess, attempting to checkmate each other rather than thinking of regional stability and the future of millions of Afghans.

Competing interests
As the US prepares to withdraw, it seeks to maintain some American soldiers as consultants and trainers in Afghanistan to support the Afghan National Army. The US has indicated its willingness to work with the winner of what it states should be free, fair and credible elections. Though the still-pending Bilateral Security Agreement could translate into the permanent presence of a smaller contingent of US forces in Afghanistan, it remains a critical denominator in the future dispensation of Afghanistan and its security prospects.

Iran is also heavily involved in Afghanistan and has cultivated political ties with many factions, especially the Shia, Farsi-speaking non-Pashtun groups. The Iranian government is content with sending economic aid for the purpose of promoting stability, thereby reducing the possibility of Afghanistan being used as a base for attacks against it. They are especially wary of Sunni militants backed by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan targeting Iranian interests and the Shia population in the region. Iran accounts for nearly 40 percent of exports to Afghanistan and around 2000 Iranian companies operate in Afghanistan. The level of bilateral trade, to the tune of USD 2 billion, has fostered a relationship based on interdependency. The return of the Taliban, and with it the isolation of the country from Iran, would be disastrous for the Afghan economy and long-term political stability.

But while the US-Iran thaw heralds a new beginning at the international level, it also has important regional implications. Though Iran may be suspicious of a continued US presence, it is keen to ensure that a full-scale Taliban regime does not assume power in Kabul. It is also interested in protecting the interests of its traditional allies, such as the Shia Hazara, the Farsiwan Heratis, and Tajiks.

The Taliban remain the proverbial elephant in the room. They will have a say in the fate of Afghanistan. This is why the US is keen to talk to them, and Afghan authorities want further dialogue with them. Both want Pakistan to facilitate this engagement. Pakistan has its own concerns about the future of the Taliban movement within its fold. Pakistan’s facilitation therefore can only be on its own terms. The chessboard is, indeed, confusing and complex.

A relatively stable Afghanistan that does not slide back into civil war and become a haven for transnational militant groups that destabilise regional neighbours, particularly Pakistan, is contingent upon a credible election that produces a legitimate successor to President Karzai. Credible elections will lay the foundation for an eventual political settlement that would take into account the interests of all regional players. But for such a political settlement, neighbouring countries have to adopt and pursue policies of non-alignment and non-interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs.

Afghanistan has been economically dependent on Pakistan for a long time. An official trade agreement exists, but its partial implementation has led to the continuation of smuggling. In fact, powerful lobbies supported by smugglers on both sides of the border prevent concrete action on this issue, with smugglers now bit-actors in the conflict. Considering that Afghan exports and imports are mostly reliant on Karachi Port, a secure and economically developing Afghanistan represents a boon to Pakistan’s ailing economy, as it may provide a growing market for Pakistani products. If this economic climate continues to grow, Pakistani workers and companies may have greater access to lucrative reconstruction and development contracts. Also, it would allow for the enhancement of transportation links, both road and rail.

Pakistan desperately needs to access untapped markets in Central Asia, which is one of the reasons for its backing of the Taliban. Since the early 1990s, Afghanistan and Pakistan have sought to build the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, which will transport Central Asian energy, particularly from Turkmenistan, to markets in Southasia. The TAPI pipeline remains unrealised to date due to insecurity, high prices demanded by the suppliers, the unreliability of Turkmenistan’s reserves, lack of adequate outside financing and continuing tensions between India and Pakistan. Furthermore, the ambitious World Bank-funded project CASA-1000, aimed at importing electricity from Central Asia to Pakistan, remains on hold due to the fragile security situation.             

Future scenarios
Given the complexity and competing interests for influence in Afghanistan, what are the future prospects? The prevailing political and security situation points to four possible scenarios related to the US and NATO military withdrawal and the disengagement of the international donor community.

The first is the dreaded but not impossible prospect of the Taliban defeating a weak, desertion-prone Afghan National Army and assuming power in Kabul. This would take the country back to the situation of the 1990s. A Taliban political takeover could, in the long-run, lead to the division of Afghanistan, as forces in the north would resist the Taliban’s attempts to exercise absolute power. While violence may decrease under a totalitarian regime, this prospect would jeopardise nation-building efforts and the evolution of Afghan institutions supported by the international community.

If the US stays committed to enhancing governance and security in Afghanistan, Pakistan and other regional states, including Iran, may continue supporting different insurgent groups. These countries will vie for power through proxies to secure their regional and national security interests. The undesirable proxy war between India and Pakistan could escalate into a conventional confrontation. In the meantime, Iran, Russia, China and the Central Asian states would also manoeuvre to secure their interests by undermining the efforts of US forces.

Another possibility is that if the US withdraws while cutting political and economic support to the government in Kabul, and Pakistan continues to support the Taliban with more resources and material, Afghanistan may descend into a civil war akin to that of the 1990s. If this happened, regional countries would throw their support behind competing groups and power-brokers, and Afghanistan would become a greater source of regional instability and a threat to international security.

Finally, in an ideal scenario, India and Pakistan would bridge their trust deficit and cooperate with the international community, especially regional players such as Iran and the Central Asian states, to work for stability in Afghanistan. All parties could gain from such a settlement as Afghanistan could serve as a conduit for energy trade in a region starved of reliable sources. In this scenario Pakistan stands to gain significantly due to its geostrategic location and maritime infrastructure, allowing it to sell energy to countries further abroad. Such approaches appear rational and beneficial, but unfortunately are not likely to come to fruition given the way ‘national interest’ is understood and articulated in New Delhi and Islamabad. Pakistan’s current government is keen to mend fences with India, but faces roadblocks caused by entrenched establishment elites. India will have a new government by the middle of 2014, and a rightwing coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party would significantly reduce the chance of détente with Pakistan.

It is therefore a test for the Afghan leadership to forge consensus and unity and demonstrate the extent to which they can resist outside map-drawers and the self-styled arbiters of their future. The international community, particularly the US, has a responsibility not to abandon the country they invaded with high rhetoric and grand ambitions. Their engagement in the years to come will be vital. At the same time, the US and NATO exit is an opportunity that cannot be squandered by regional stakeholders. History has some bitter lessons to offer, if only ‘players’ such as Pakistan were willing to learn from them.

~This article is a part of Reclaiming Afghanistan: web-exclusive package.

~ Raza Rumi works as a consulting editor at The Friday Times, and is a regular columnist and a TV show host for the Express Group. He also freelances as a public policy expert. Raza’s book Delhi by Heart: Impressions of a Pakistani Traveller was published in 2013 by Harper Collins.