The Middle Kingdom and the Subcontinent

How should South Asia deal with a China which believes in its destiny to be the predominant Asian power.

The dramatic event of India's conducting nuclear tests on 11 and 13 May and declaring itself a nuclear weapons state changes the terms of reference of China's relations with South Asian countries qualitatively. The statements of the Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes describing China as a major threat even before the tests and Prime Minister Vajpayee's mentioning the Chinese threat as an impulse for India's nuclear weaponisation in his letters to the heads of governments of nuclear weapons states has changed the gradually and painfully created atmosphere of stability and tranquility in the South Asian region.

Regretfully, Sino-Indian relations have deteriorated precipitously after the tests, and the tension between the two countries affects the security of all the countries of the region. The setback to the process of normalisation of relations between India and China is a regrettable development which could have been avoided if Indian spokesmen, notwithstanding India's tests, had been more reticent and measured and if the Chinese reaction had been more patient. What has instead happened is that the strategic balance in the region has undergone a major change about which China has reservations – a change which India could not avoid in terms of its long-term regional strategic interests.