Skewed Priorities in Pakistan

A cantonment mentality, and fear of India keep the Pakistan military´s coffers full.Two years ago, when India´s former Chief of Army Staff General K. Sunderji met with Pakistan´s former Vice Chief of Army Staff General K.M. Arif for non-official talks in Islamabad, both generals agreed that defence spending should be reduced in their respective countries..What is interesting about that exchange was, firstly, that it took place at all, and, secondly, that no one picked up on it. The episode says something about the arena of public debate in Pakistan, where some of the most important issues of rule and misrule are conveniently never discussed. "Defence spending is one of those things that they don´t want the people to talk about," says I.A. Rehman, a senior journalist now heading the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan..Indeed, the Pakistani rulers´ reluctance to let the ghareeb awam (the poor masses) in on the decision-making processes is particularly visible when it concerns the armed forces. This is the most sacred of cows, and the secrecy extends from defence expenditures to scientific experiments and troop movements. The military is treated as an entity apart from the people, an attitude that is often reflected in the behaviour of serving or ex-army officers..Irfan (not his real name) left the armed forces almost ten years ago while still in training, after an altercation with a senior officer. Now a full-time civilian, he still wears his hair short (army-style), and refuses to pay the three rupee toll-tax at the highway leading out of Lahore. Rolling down his window and tersely barking "Army!", he takes advantage of the exemption enjoyed by army officers and the docility of the civilian toll-collector. After all these years, Irfan still refers to his compatriots as "these civilians"..The overall structure and workings; of the Pakistan Armed Forces strongly reflects their ancestry, being direct descendants of the standing army kept by the British. Says Mr Rehman, "The British needed it as a colonial power to subjugate the people, and it had to be a separate entity." Thus, each key town or city had a well-laid out cantonment or garrison area, where officers and soldiers lived, often with their families..The cantonments still exist, and their present inhabitants continue to live at a distance from the public. These compounds are marked by their colonial character, with spacious houses amidst neat lawns, and wide, tree-shaded avenues. Flower-pots are periodically re-painted red by gardeners or orderlies. The children attend exclusive Army or Air Force schools, and army wives buy provisions at subsidised rates..A good percentage of what is called the "hidden" defence expenditure of Pakistan goes into these subsidies, cantonment upkeep, running of schools, and other developments that benefit armed forces personnel..And since Pakistan´s inception in 1947, and particularly since the first martial law of 1958, the main justification given for spend¬ing so much on the armed forces has been India´s hegemonic ambitions and the three wars that have been fought between the two countries.."Every emerging nation wants economic development to provide a better future for its citizens," wrote N.A. Jaffary, who was financial advisor to the Ministry of Defence during the time of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, in an article in The Muslim of Islamabad last August. "This is only possible when its independence is ensured.Umbrella protection and defence pacts do not work.".A Missile for a Missile. Many Pakistani analysts argue that India has to start the process of reducing defence expenditures. Asks Jaffary: "How can India, almost five times larger in size, eight times larger in population, and seven times higher in GDP, feel threatened by a small country like Pakistan? It should, therefore, take the lead.".Nazir Kamal, of the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad, says one reason Southeast Asia has raced ahead in the last quarter century is due to sound leadership and vision shown by one powerful state. "Indonesia, with a clout similar to India´s in South Asia, turned away from traditional power politics in favour of benign regionalism. It was this enlightened self-interest that accounts for ASEAN´s economic miracle and Indonesia´s remarkable progress."."So long as there is the bilateral dispute with India over Kashmir, it is unrealistic to think that Pakistan will unilaterally reduce defence spending," says economist Akmal Hussain. Hence, in its effort to keep up with its eastern neighbour, Pakistan is caught in a race where to "counter the threat," as Gen (retd) K.M. Arif puts it, "you must possess the same capability as the opponent enjoys.a nuclear device against a nuclear device, a missile against a missile, a plane against a plane, and a tank against a tank.".Even though this ambition is not possible, given the country´s size and resources, Pakistan still ends up diverting a far larger share of its budget than India, into its military. The most recent cause for alarm was the firing of India´s long-range Prithvi missile, which Pakistan sees as a direct threat and will no doubt scramble to counter..Though it is possible to counter threats through diplomacy, no one is banking on it..No Bofors in Pakistan.As long as regional tension and large military spending continues, many have publicly argued that at least the defence budget should be properly accounted for, and slashed, where possible..Mr Jaffary believes that the overall defence expenditure can be safely reduced by 10 to 12 percent without touching the pay and allowances of defence personnel. He suggests that, since Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is also Finance Minister, "she can take the initiative and decide that the defence budget consistent with security requirements be discussed in the National Assembly." The House, for its part, has to ensure that the defence allocations are "properly spent and the country gets its money´s worth," he adds..Since 1958, Pakistan´s defence budget has appeared almost always as a single line entry in the annual budget statement presented to the National Assembly, where it is subjected to vote. The entry reads simply: "Defence services to defray salaries and other expenses of the defence services." There are no breakdown or details provided.."The issue is not that we want to dismantle the army, but that there has to be value for money, and accountability," says economist Shahid Kardar. "We recognise that there is a threat from India. But where is the defence budget going? Are they spending it on orderlies or staff cars? As a tax-payer, I want to know.".Mr Kardar is forthright in his views: "The monster is slowly devouring us, and the Punjabi and Pathan politicians who have historically remained silent, partly for fear of jeopardising their political fortunes and partly because their communities are the main beneficiaries, have to start asking how long this langar (charity) will continue. Especially now that the expenditure on defence pensions has even exceeded the current salary bill of defence personnel. In Pakistan, we are now in a position where instead of a country needing an army, there is an army that needs a country.".Pakistani politicians maintain a discreet but palpable silence on the issue, however. Even while there is no constitutional provi¬sion preventing a detailed scrutiny on the defence budget in Parliament, they are not keen. Says Akmal Hussain, "In all democratic societies, Parliament subjects defence expenditures to public scrutiny and ensures that it is cost-effective.".The Human Rights Commission´s Mr Rehman agrees: "There is no discussion here. Contracts are made, money is allocated, no one knows what happens to it. They had the Bofors scandal in India. Something like that has never happened here.".Civil Demands.High military spending is not a law of nature, points out Zia Mian, of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) in Islamabad. "It is a policy choice made by a particular state at a particular time. Why that choice has been made in Pakistan is obvious: it is due to the role the military plays in domestic politics. Since independence, Pakistan has had a series of weak governments and strong military dictators. Thus, the military as an institution and the Army in particular, has become the strongest determinant of foreign policy as well as budgetary priorities."."The armed forces have no relationship with civil society. As a result, the defence budget, with its hidden and non-hidden expenditures, is non-productive," says Mr Rehman."ln developed countries, defence expansion is largely derived from civil society, like companies that provide parts or machinery, or laboratories and establishments whose experiments and discoveries also benefit civilians. Here, there is no integrated technological, scientific development base.".But economist Akmal Hussain´s answer to the problem of high defence expenditure is not to reduce defence spending, but to develop an industrial base and indigenise defence production. "The history of industrial growth in the West is linked to defence spending. The US economy took off during World War II, and Germany´s in the 1930s," he says. "In India, 80 paisa of every rupee spent on defence goes back to their economy and stimulates it. Here, in Pakistan, it is the opposite. For every rupee spent on defence, 80 paisa goes into foreign exchange and benefits another country´s economy.".The percentage of Pakistan´s defence expenditure as part of GDP has dropped from 7.10 in 1985-86 to 6.88 in 1995-96. However, the actual money allocated continues to increase because of a high inflation rale, of 13 to 18 percent annually. In comparison, only about 3 percent of the GDP is allocated for health, education and related sectors..Mr Kardar points out that Pakistan spends PKR975 per capita on defence, and only PKR 105 per capita on health, education and related services. This is almost ten times as much on defence as on the social sector. "There are about eight soldiers per doctor in the country and 1.5 soldiers per teacher. The actual ratio of doctors may be worse because so many qualify and then join the administrative services.".As a result of what Mr Kardar calls "these skewed priorities", Pakistan has the ninth largest army in the world, holds 30th position for arms imports in proportion to total imports, and stands 127th in terms of national literacy and health related expenditure. The economist notes that the expenditure on defence and debt servicing is PKR 13 billion more than the tax revenues of the federal government. "For four years running, the government´s declared expenditure on defence has surpassed the allocations in the budget for development activities," he says. "Even the government´s limited achievement in compressing the fiscal deficit, has come about almost entirely by retrenchment in development expenditure."."The social sector is of primary importance. It is the only long term way of ensuring national security," says Akmal Hussain. "You have to give the minimum conditions of civilised life to your own people, or you will have internal security problems and unrest."."What is security?" asks Mr Mian of SDPI. "Is it really more and more tanks, faster and faster jet fighters, bigger and bigger armies, a desperate search for a new way of killing, for missiles and nuclear weapons? Security is also about the day-to-day feelings of ordinary people, having decent food to eat, clothes to wear, a home to live in.".Concludes Mr Mian: "The most important question to ask about security, however, is who gets to ask the question and who gets to answer it. The tragedy of Pakistan is that asking questions is not encouraged."