War, peace, war, peace, war, peace, war, peace

While Kathmandu is abuzz with terms such as 'peace process', 'arms management', 'summit meetings' and 'international supervision', the rhetoric over in Colombo has suddenly darkened significantly – 'ceasefire violations', 'bomb blast' and 'war'.

It was less than a year back when, to an outside observer, Sri Lanka seemed well on its way to mending its tattered polity. Also at that time, on average seven Nepalis were dying every day due to political violence, the highest rate of political deaths anywhere in the world. In the island, it was hoped that the 'peace dividend', in terms of an absence of violence and a rising economy, would create enough incentives for the belligerents to stay the course of peace.

But the momentum of 20 years of war was apparently too much to undo the joint action of a state establishment that could not reconcile itself to the idea of a federal state, and a Tiger leadership that in retrospect must have been itching to revert back to the call of the gun that it knew so well. In such calculations, there was little consideration for the lives of the citizens, such as those lost in the landmine blast of 15 June that woke up the rest of us to the fact that Sri Lanka had reverted to war.

For their part, the Nepali Maobaadis realised sometime last year the strategic necessity of considering the Indian government's nervousness, and the impossibility of winning state power militarily. The fact that, unlike the LTTE, the Nepali rebels did not have a geographical base made them more amenable to an understanding. Additionally, a class-based war is relatively easier to accommodate than an identity-based conflict.

What gave impetus to their transformation was the feeling among the Maoists that their chances of having a share in the power structure were higher if they engaged with the democratic mainstream. Credit for this transformative reconciliation goes to Nepal's much-reviled political parties, which have shown admirable wisdom in creating space for the rebels in recent months, even though the latter still hold the carbines in their hand. It is now for the Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal to reciprocate by sincerely beginning the process of what is euphemistically called "arms management". The challenge of getting the ground-level rebel cadre to disarm remains, but the peace process is broadly on track.

Things could go wrong in Nepal just as they have in Sri Lanka. On the other hand, the Sri Lankan ship of state could suddenly right itself if the two parties realise that the tsunami of a restarted war may sweep everything away, including Jaffna and Colombo. We hope that better sense prevails all around, and that peace and inclusive democracy become a reality in both the northern and southern parts of Southasia.