Girls outside the NLD's headquarters hold up a picture of Aung San Suu Kyi as election results come in. Rangoon, 1 April 2012. Images: Joseph Allchin
Girls outside the NLD's headquarters hold up a picture of Aung San Suu Kyi as election results come in. Rangoon, 1 April 2012. Images: Joseph Allchin

The shadow of the gun

Despite victory in Burma’s historic by-elections, the NLD faces many daunting obstacles to meaningful change.

Joseph Allchin is a writer and journalist who has spent many years writing about and living in the greater Bay of Bengal region. His critically acclaimed first book, 'Many Rivers One Sea', looks at the politics of extremism in Bangladesh and is out now.

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If any election was hyped up to supposedly deliver something that it simply could not, this was it. But then the Burmese elections were not usual; this was not a vote on a specific policy or a vote to choose a new government, but more an explosive expression – though arguably in a cynically controlled fashion – of the popular will after nearly a quarter century of its denial.

The by-election was initially for 48 seats in Burma's 664-seat Hluttaw, the national parliament that comprises both upper and lower houses. These seats became available when their previous holders were appointed to ministerial or cabinet roles in the country's executive, forcing them to vacate their parliamentary seats as per the rules of the Burmese system. Given the small number of seats available, these by-elections never really offered the opposition a path to power. Three seats were incontestable because of the ongoing conflict in Burma's northernmost Kachin state.

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