Round-up regional news

BANGLADESH/ INDIA
All aboard!
After months of discussion – and four decades of waiting – the Maitree (friendship) Express finally chugged across the India-Bangladesh border on 14 April, the first day of the Bengali new year. In fact, two Expresses were in order for the celebrations, with one leaving from Dhaka and the other from Calcutta, simultaneously. Although crossborder buses began running a decade or so ago, the Maitree is the first crossborder rail connection since 1965. The anticipation was evidently worth it. The demand for tickets was so high that Bangladeshi authorities were forced to add an additional car to the train, to accommodate eager passengers. As a result, 80 more people, in addition to the 418 in the regular cars, made the journey to Calcutta. (Its Indian counterpart only had a small contingent for its maiden run, though this will soon change.) The 538-km journey, 418 km of which are in Bangladesh, currently costs USD 8 for a seat in economy, USD 12 for a seat in the air-conditioned compartment, and USD 20 for a sleeping berth. Although trains are currently only set to run a few times a week, it would seem that public demand would quickly change this. The only complaints so far: out of a 13-hour trip, five hours were spent at security checkposts.

REGION
Apocalypse soon
It may be a regular discussion nowadays, but the numbers are always astounding. If Southasia continues with its relatively slapdash attitude toward the rapidly degrading environment all over, an estimated 125 million people in the region look set to become 'environmental refugees', due to sea-level rise, droughts, decreasing water supplies and monsoon variability. According to a recent report by S Chella Rajan, a professor at IIT Madras, around 10 million migrants per state would flee from West Bengal, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, with between four and six million a piece from Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Orissa. This massive internal movement would inevitably be dramatically compounded by Rajan's estimate that around 75 million Bangladeshis would also be fleeing to India. In addition to the worry that such issues have barely made it to the contingency-planning stage in most countries, the evidence on the ground is already distressing. Little has been done for the recently displaced, such as the 19 million made homeless during the monsoon floods of 2007. That number could eventually seem like a small drop in the bucket.

INDIA/ PAKISTAN
Mind your own business
New Delhi may claim to be open to 'dialogue' on matters related to Kashmir, but still feels that observers who have no standing in the matter should keep quiet. The Organisation for Islamic Countries (OIC), which met in March in Senegal, irked India over comments on Jammu & Kashmir in its final resolution. The 56-member body expressed "concern" over human-rights violations in J & K, as well as the government's refusal to allow a fact-finding mission to the state. Of course, other human-rights groups have documented violations in detail. But perhaps Indian policymakers bristled at the choice of words when the OIC suggested that India is "denigrating" the "legitimate" Kashmiri freedom struggle. Such criticism of New Delhi stands in stark contrast to the OIC's praise of Islamabad for taking steps to "peacefully" settle the Kashmir issue. Reacting, a Ministry of External Affairs spokesman warned that the OIC has "no locus standi in matters concerning our internal affairs."

NEPAL
Of interest to all
Nepal's elections to a Constituent Assembly, on 10 April, went off surprisingly smoothly for polls that had already been twice postponed. In the face of the unanticipated results, everyone breathed a sigh of relief – in and out of the country. Indeed, Nepal's polls were historic not only for the opportunity given to – and taken by – the Nepali people, but also for the overwhelming interest shown by the international community. First and foremost, of course, were the election monitors. In addition to the thousands of home-grown monitors, close to a thousand others swooped in from a range of international organisations. Then there was the material support: ink from Australia, ballot boxes and a fleet of Election Commission vehicles from India. Even comfy voting pads from the People's Republic of China (see pic). When Nepal votes, the whole world shows up to the party!

REGION
Riceless
For a people for whom rice is the staple food, any sustained shortage will inevitably invite social disruption. This is exactly what has been taking place in recent months in Southasia, as for the rest of the three billion people around the world who depend on rice. In Bangladesh, for instance, the price of a kilo of coarse rice has more than doubled over the past year, even as workers' wages have remained constant. By mid-April, this led tens of thousands of workers out onto the streets in protest. Bangladeshi businessmen have long placed the blame for these increases on export restrictions in rice-producing countries, particularly India. Indeed, some observers are taking a harder line: Sajjad Zohir, with the Economic Research Group, Dhaka, recently called the price hikes "a crime against humanity". But in fact, India has been experiencing its own rice crunch. Against rising frustration with the government for failing to keep prices down, New Delhi recently banned the export of all non-basmati rice types, impacting not only Bangladesh but also Afghanistan. Low supply – reportedly down to 1970s levels – is being blamed for the skyrocketing prices, though the reasons behind the deficit are complex, including large swathes of agricultural lands being lost to urbanisation. Of course, rice is not the only food commodity to be affected, and Southasia is not the only region currently labouring under dramatically increased rice prices. Indeed, in mid-April the Philippines-based International Rice Research Institute reported that worldwide rice prices had soared by 70 percent, and that things did not look set to get better anytime soon.

REGION
Poor progress
Halfway through the allotted time period for meeting the UN's Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the Southasian scene remains dismal when it comes to health, food, access to education and sanitation. According to the World Bank's Global Monitoring Report 2008, most Southasian countries will find it next to impossible to meet most of the eight MDG objectives by the target date of 2015. Health and education look like the most significant areas of concern, though they are not the only ones. The region has not significantly lowered child and maternal mortality rates; cut hunger and malnutrition; closed the gender gap; ensured universal primary education; or improved nutrition and sanitation. Despite these shortcomings, poverty levels throughout Southasia have indeed fallen significantly, though this has largely been attributed to high growth levels in the region's largest country, India. Indeed, the prospects on this front look even brighter, with the Bank suggesting, "While most of the global poverty reduction between 1990 and 2004 took place in East Asia and Pacific, South Asia is likely to contribute the most to global poverty reduction in the next decade." This good news apart, poverty reduction does not seem to have impacted child nutrition as much as it could have. The region remains at the bottom of the global list with regards to child malnutrition, with the rate in India double that of the African average.

PAKISTAN/ INDIA
A neighbour's ras
In European markets, Pakistani mangoes have long been chosen over Indian ones. This is attributed to better taste, though their lower price obviously cannot be discounted. Despite the heartburn that this has undoubtedly caused Indian mango growers and exporters, a recent decision will undoubtedly make at least one group of Indians happy: importers, if not the eaters themselves. For the first time, Pakistani mangoes will be making a foray into Indian markets this year. "I will import a few trucks of Chaunsa variety of mango from Multan, and sell them in the North Indian market for the first time," Ankush Aggarwal, a trader, said enthusiastically. In fact, the situation is much more win-win than it may have at first seemed. The entry of the Pakistani mango does not actually look set to significantly hamper Indian farmers, as the Pakistani fruits are available from May to September. The Indian season, on the other hand, generally winds down by July or August. Now, if only crossing the Wagah border could get a bit easier, so that Indians and Pakistanis could sit with one another over a refreshing mango lassi and chit-chat about this and that…

PAKISTAN/ AFGHANISTAN
Let's talk
The new prime minister of Pakistan, Yousuf Raza Gillani, surprised many observers in the early days of his tenure when he announced that his government was willing to talk with militant groups in the country's tribal areas, on condition that they disarm. The offer evidently extended to those groups aligned to the Taliban active across the border in Afghanistan, which have been increasingly operating on Pakistani soil. The assertion was a significant policy turnaround from what has held sway in Pakistan in recent years. The prime minister said that his aim was to attempt to deal with the root causes of militancy by addressing the underlying poverty in the tribal areas, as well as the "unresolved political issues". The militant Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan immediately welcomed the invitation, but stated that it could accept only on the condition that Islamabad reverses its pro-American policies. Others were not so forthcoming, including some members of the government itself. Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi quickly clarified that the offer did not extend to groups that Pakistan defines as 'terrorists'. Islamabad will not "negotiate with terrorists," Qureshi explained,"but we believe in political engagement." This, of course, leaves us with a gaping hole in logic. Groups such as the Taliban resort to violence precisely due to their non-involvement in the political process. And, as Prime Minister Gillani himself has put it, the ideal "multi-pronged" strategy against "terrorism" would be to bring groups such as the Tehreek into the political mainstream. The hope at that point would be that the 'sharper edges' would be blunted over time due to the compromises that inherently come with a democratic set-up. The push for dialogue is indeed an optimistic and forward-looking change in Pakistani policy. For the moment, though, it seems that the prime minister will first have to have a few closed-door conversations amongst his own colleagues.

INDIA
Assassin compassion
Talk of compassion. In mid-April, Priyanka Gandhi, the daughter of Sonia and Rajiv, admitted to visiting Nalini Sriharan, a member of the assassination squad that killed her father in May 1991. The meeting had been kept a secret for several weeks, nor was there any record in the prison's logs of the visit. This attempt to stay low profile was, eventually, explained by the sensational cause celebre that the media made of the story once the news was leaked. In fact, the family has long been closely attentive to the accused killers. Sriharan, currently in prison in Vellore, Tamil Nadu, was originally given the death penalty, along with three other accused. But this quickly was commuted to a life sentence at the behest of Sonia Gandhi. The request was officially made out of consideration of Sriharan's young children, though Sonia has long been a vehement opponent of the death penalty. Once the journalists started sniffing around, Priyanka was very reticent to talk, undoubtedly worried that the whole situation would look like a planned publicity stunt. She emphasised that her visit was "completely personal", an effort "to make peace with all the violence" in her life. Her undertaking also follows on the LTTE's admission, in 2006, of "regret" over the assassination, a sentiment that seems to be shared by all.

AFGHANISTAN/ PAKISTAN
PACCI
Since at least 2005 there has been significant talk about boosting trade ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan, though little has come of it. Now, Kabul and Islamabad have taken another – and perhaps firmer – step, the signing of an agreement to form a joint chamber of commerce, the PACCI.

The new body's responsibilities will be to prepare recommendations for both governments on ways to improve bilateral economic relations, to facilitate the exchange of businessmen and technical experts, and to advocate for Afghan and Pakistani industries on the domestic and international fields. These are certainly noteworthy goals, but it remains unclear as to whether the agreement takes into consideration the lop-sided trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan, in firm favour of the latter. The PACCI has already brought about some confusion. In 2007, the Pakistani Sarhad Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Afghanistan International Chamber of Commerce signed an agreement with similar aims as the PACCI. The question is, what will the new collaboration be able to accomplish that the previous one cannot?

PAKISTAN/ INDIA
Filmi friendship
When the political process is moving at a snail's pace, leave it to the filmi industry to step in and try to build some bridges between Southasians. Pakistan has overturned its longstanding ban on Bollywood films, and recently allowed the official releases of Welcome, Awarapan, Goal and Race in Pakistani theatres. This had been a longstanding demand of theatre owners in Pakistan, who criticise the national producers for not making anything good enough to draw crowds. Well, there is one Pakistani producer that is good enough even to invade the up-market Indian theatres. In April, Pakistan's Khuda Kay Liye, featuring the Indian actor Naseeruddin Shah, was the first commercial Pakistani film to hit Indian theatres in more than four decades. The film has been backed by the Geo television channel in Lahore. Director Shoaib Mansoor made his debut by focusing on the way Pakistani Muslims are viewed in the post-9/11 era. "People of both the countries love each other, so there really should be more exchange of art, culture and films," said Shailendra Singh, managing director of the distribution company that brought the film to India. But this is not a no-strings-attached exchange: the Islamabad government has demanded that for each Indian title released in Pakistan, a Pakistani production must be shown in India. Perhaps, at long last, this will motivate Lollywood to start making better films for its own audience: because there will also be an Indian audience.

SRI LANKA
Weary and willing
February 2006 seems a long time ago now. That was when representatives of the LTTE and Colombo government sat together in Geneva for two days in what were seen as surprisingly successful talks. An agreement was made that both sides would curb violence, and a second round of discussion was scheduled for the following April. The violence escalated, the talks were put off indefinitely, and, this past January, the government pulled out of the 2002 Ceasefire Agreement altogether. Now, perhaps the rebels are losing steam. P Nadesan, the new head of the Tigers' political wing (after the November 2007 assassination of S P Thamilselvan), recently announced to parliamentarians of the pro-rebel Tamil National Alliance that the LTTE is willing to restart talks with the Colombo government if the latter halts military operations. Nadesan hastened to note that this olive branch should not be seen as "any desperation", adding that "the ball is in the Sri Lankan government's court … It was they who started the armed attack." Where exactly to place such blame is, at this juncture, beside the point. With the sting of past experience, the government will undoubtedly look at the current offering as an opportunity for the LTTE to recoup its losses.

BHUTAN/ TIBET
Old ties
China certainly has been able to count on the dutiful cooperation of Southasian governments during the recent Tibetan uprising(s). In addition to New Delhi and Kathmandu bending over backwards to ensure that Tibetan protesters do not make too much of a nuisance of themselves, Thimphu has also recently shown its proclivities. In March, the still-royal government clamped down on the small Tibetan refugee community in Bhutan, to ensure that it did not voice any support for the Tibetan cause. Actually, Thimphu officials simply reminded their citizenry of the laws of the land, which specifically outlaw demonstrations and protests.

"We want to demonstrate but we don't have the right to, and that is very bad for us," one young Tibetan woman in Bhutan was recently quoted as saying. As is the situation regarding other minorities, Thimphu is worried about allowing its Tibetan population too loud a voice, particularly on such a sensitive geopolitical topic. But in fact, Tibetans play an important role in Bhutani society. Tibetans were welcomed into Bhutan – and given land by the royal government – through the mid-20th century, at which point the northern border was closed due to worries of being overrun. But further, the name 'Bhutan' itself is thought by some to be derived from the Sanskrit bhot-anta, meaning 'where Tibet ends'. Either way, we can only hope that Thimphu's incoming National Council will in the future work to ensure freedom of expression for all, including Tibetan refugees.

REGION
The pre-eminent position
Some would say that Indian government officials take their desire for regional supremacy to outlandish lengths. Back in February, the Colombo government admitted to stepping up arms acquisitions from Pakistan, following New Delhi's decision to halt its own sales due to the island's descent into outright warfare, a situation in which Indian law prohibits exports. This had evidently rattled some windows in South Block. A month later, India's National Security Adviser, M K Narayanan, was emphasising that his government needs "to ensure that India's pre-eminent position in the region is not compromised by Sri Lanka seeking arms from elsewhere." In spite of the fact that New Delhi's hands are currently tied with regards to continuing to arm the Sri Lankan military, Narayanan did not sound so convinced, adding that there needs to be a "national consensus" on how much "military assistance" India should provide to Sri Lanka. In the next breath, the NSA noted that India wanted the Colombo government to treat its Tamil population with dignity. Is the security adviser suggesting that Sri Lanka buying arms from India, rather than from Pakistan, is going to make Colombo deal with Sri Lankan Tamils that much better?

BHUTAN
Lost vote
While Bhutan's recent polls have widely been feted as being largely successful, the country's minority Lhotshampa community – Bhutanis of Nepali origin – was systematically excluded from the historic process. During the campaigning period, candidates were banned from talking about citizenship issues, and at least one contender was disqualified for circulating a document about the Lhotshampa uprisings of the 1990s. In all, 19 Lhotshampa candidates did run, and nine scored wins. But that did not ameliorate the feelings of outright discrimination vis-à-vis the citizenship issue. Commenting on the ban, one winning Lhotshampa candidate, Ritu Raj Chhetri, said, "It is a national issue that has affected about one-third of the country's population, and the Election Commission is not being fair by disallowing us to talk on it." A 2005 official census had separated Bhutan's population into two categories: citizens and 'non-nationals'. The latter group, accounting for about 13 percent of Bhutan's population and comprising mostly of the Lhotshampa, were deemed ineligible to vote. This was an ironic turn of events, as it was the Lhotshampa who originally called for direct legislative elections, a multi-party system and a constitutional monarchy, all of which was implemented in the run-up to the recent polls. In fact, it was demands such as these that led to the expulsion, in the early 1990s, of over 100,000 Lhotshampa, the majority of whom now live in refugee camps in southeastern Nepal. If it seems surprising that any Lhotshampa was elected at all, however, it need not be. The community still accounts for a significant percentage of the Bhutani populace. While a reliable count of the Lhotshampa currently in Bhutan is not available, it is estimated that they still account for between 25 percent and 40 percent of the total population. Clearly some strong representation is needed for such a large demographic.

BURMA/ CHINA
One friend to another
Over the past several decades, Burma's government has learned a lot about corking dissent. So too, evidently, have its citizens. As such, an insurgent group recently found it quite easy to comply with Chinese requests to hand over activists. In the aftermath of the mid-March Tibetan uprising, two unnamed Tibetan political activists, who had been lying low in northern Burma, were captured by the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) and promptly deported to China. Ironically, the KIO, a separatist group formed in 1961, is one of the Southasia's few militant groups that sustained a movement for autonomy for over five decades. The KIO signed a ceasefire with the junta several years back. The Burmese government's ties with China have long been of importance in propping up the regime. As countries around the world have used the recent Tibetan unrest to call on China to address its human-rights situation in the lead-up to the Olympics, this August, the Burmese generals have dutifully noted that Tibet's volatile situation is "purely the internal affair" of China.

BURMA
'Soft coup?'
You know a military autocracy is entrenched when the only way to achieve regime change is for one general to usurp another's political position. Indeed, according to rumours that began to surface over the past month, there appears to be a growing rift within the Rangoon junta over how to run the state's future. The state machinery, under what is known as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), is directly aligned with General Than Shwe. This side is now engaged in an ideological battle with top-ranking generals who want to institute reforms to create a more professional army. The latter are distressed by corruption within the government and its negative impact on the image of the army, both within the country and globally. (Desertions in the army's ranks, reportedly put down to endemic corruption, have increased dramatically in recent years.) Meanwhile, Gen Shwe's health continues to deteriorate, and speculation of a possible 'soft coup', led by one of these two camps, has become louder. If such an event were to occur, it is unclear whether the proposed referendum scheduled for May, and planned elections (in 2010) would go forward.