Peace process and the LTTE split

The sudden and unexpected split in the LTTE in the first week of March appears poised to take a dangerous turn. The LTTE leadership relieved its former eastern commander, Colonel Karuna Amman of his post describing him a traitor to the cause of Tamil people and the Tamil Eelam national leadership. Meanwhile, the LTTE has appointed a new commander, Ramesh, for the east. Karuna´s reaction has been equally confrontational, setting up a new Eastern Tamil party and ordering members of the Tamil Eelam administration in the area to leave. It is also reported that Jaffna Tamil university staff and businessmen in the Batticaloa and Ampara districts have also been asked to leave. But the split is not yet an accomplished fact as it goes against the strong ideological unity of the LTTE organisation and of the larger Tamil nationalist movement.

At present, Karuna´s position in the east appears secure, even though his top ranking deputies have left him for the LTTE. The cadres he trained and for whom he was the leader continue to be loyal to him. But they would also be deeply troubled by their leader´s rebellion against all they stood for in the past two decades. When Karuna decided to renounce his allegiance to the LTTE leader Prabhakaran, he took on an enormous challenge with regard to his own cadres. What would continue to keep his cadres loyal to him would be the continuing support of the civilian population. Although the breakaway leadership led by Karuna appears confident, there is the constant risk of political assassination at which the LTTE has specialist skills. Also, there is the risk of alienating the eastern people who thus far appear to be supportive of the breakaway leadership. But the question is for how long.