NO STOPPING THE TIGERS

The peace initiative in Sri Lanka was dealt a deathly blow on 10 March, when the Tamil Tigers launched an explosive attack on the ceremonial state drive leading to Parliament in Colombo. As frightening as the results were—the blast cost no less than 29 lives and many wounded—it could have been worse..The target was a motorcade returning to Colombo from Parliament after the passing of the defence votes in this year's budget and the monthly renewal of the state of emergency that has been in force for several years. The Tigers had assembled a killer squad of at least six suicide bombers and an arsenal that included general-purpose and multi-purpose machine guns, light anti-tank weapons, 40-millimetre grenade launchers and as many as six claymore mines. Had they succeeded in hitting the VIP motorcade, the victims could have included cabinet ministers, officers of the armed forces, police chiefs and many more. As one newspaper columnist put it, they would surely have stunned the nation and shocked the world..But god smiled down on the VIPs, though not on lesser mortals who were victims of the carnage. It all began when the occupant of a tumbledown overgrown lot overlooking the state drive alerted the police upon spotting some activity by persons he thought were drug addicts. Three policemen who arrived to check out the place were gunned down by the militants who were thus forced to prematurely unleash their attack. While the targeted VIPs, including Deputy Defence Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte who runs the war for the Colombo government, lived to tell the tale, the authorities were left to mull over the reality that the Tigers had been able to smuggle in enough men and material that would have successfully broken through the defence cordons of almost any of the vital installations in Colombo..As one of the country's well-known LTTE watchers put it: "The Tiger plan on that day was uniquely unprecedented… The wholesale destruction of the upper echelons of the defence establishment was the objective…".Indeed, if the intended carnage of the VIPs had happened, the warming up for peace that began with Norway's willingness to play broker, would have perhaps instantly fizzled out. President Chandrika Kumaratunga, however, was firm that the 10 March attack would not derail her peace process. Despite the violent pressure being maintained by the Tigers, she said that she believes the rebels are "softening towards talks", and that she hopes to have a peace deal worked out in six months. The Norwegians, meanwhile, think "it may take years". One reason, actually, may be that the chief Norwegian negotiator Knut Vollebaek (see Commentary, March 2000) lost his job with the collapse of the Oslo government on the same day of the Colombo ambush, making way for Labour Party rule. While this may not change the mediation equation, matters may be stalled for a while..What the 10 March assault has surely done is to further steel the belief of the hardliners among the majority Sinhalese community, including the influential Buddhist clergy, that there can be no negotiated peace with the Tigers. The four chief monks of the major Buddhist sects have written to the president saying that "what prevails in the country is Tamil racist terrorism and not an 'ethnic' problem". They have said that in such a situation, "the only solution is to use the power of the State to crush terrorism and firmly establish the writ of the government and law and order throughout the country"..This is also the view that the army holds, with the commander, Lt. General Srilal Weerasooriya, firmly on record that there can be no peace without "crushing the Tigers". In a communiqué issued through the defence ministry a week after the most recent LTTE terror, he said that the "sole impediment to final victory is the shortage of soldiers", and appealed to parents to encourage their sons to join the army..This then is the ambiguous position of Sri Lanka: while its president is striving toward a political consensus for peace with the Tigers, her army is moving might and main to enlist more soldiers for a "final victory". Meanwhile, the war continues to extract its human toll..THE PRESIDENT'S VISION.Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga has the distinction of being the only South Asian head of state/government who has faced the bomber's wrath and survived. A bomb went off on 18 December 1999, and she sustained grievous facial injuries which are obvious to this day. In what is perhaps a case of showing unusual sensitivity to something that is both personal and a disfiguring injury, the Colombo press has not reported extensively on it and the South Asia intelligentsia remains unaware of what the president has had to go through..Though the details are not clear, those in the know in Colombo maintain that the president has lost use of her right eye, although it is hoped that sight will be restored in time. Kumaratunga now wears glasses and is not as photogenic as she used to be without them..Recently, the president is said to have been irked when a local photographer accompanying a freelance Indian journalist went to see her in connection with an interview for the Far Eastern Economic Review—she said that photographers were angling for ungainly pictures of her, and asked the journalist to get a stock picture from the presidential media unit.Kumaratunga has begun to wear glasses, but this robs her of the old charisma that she exuded. Accompanied by her eye surgeon, she was due to leave the country in early April, possibly for some reconstructive surgery.