MONOLOGUE TO DIALOGUE

The declaration of a unilateral ceasefire during the month of Ramzan (November 29- December 28) by Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has given a new lease of life to the failing peace process in Kashmir. This unilateral move has been hailed by many in India and abroad as the first positive step in the direction of peace after the collapse of the August 2000 peace initiative of the Hizbul Mujahideen, which had also declared a unilateral ceasefire. Initially, Pakistan had dismissed Vajpayee's declaration as a 'ploy', and the Hizbul Mujahideen and other jehadist groups who operate from sanctuaries inside Pakistan not only rejected the Indian offer, but stepped up their military operations in the Valley. Almost a week after the Indian declaration, however, on 2 December, in a sudden change of stance Islamabad declared that it had ordered its armed forces on the line of control to exercise "maximum restraint" to "strengthen and stabilise" the ceasefire in "occupied Kashmir".

Dawn of Karachi linked Islamabad´s shift to the US Assistant Secretary of State Karl Inderfurth´s reported statement in  New Delhi  urging "Pakistan and Mujahideen organisations to positively reciprocate  Indian  prime  minister´s ceasefire offer". Earlier, India´s Defence Minister, George Fernandes had indicated that New Delhi´s unilateral ceasefire was a response to ´suggestions´ from certain ´quarters´. Obviously, it was US pressure on India and Pakistan that led to a breakthrough   in  the   India-Pakistan deadlock. But how does one now move from this stage of unilateral statements and counter-statements to dialogue? It is obvious that the two parties have to face each other across a table, and the sooner that happens the better for the survival of the current peace initiative. While the combined pressure of the US government and the IMF has succeeded in bringing the two warring governments this far, this will not be enough to take them to the next necessary stage.