Beginning of the end?

A war weary population has demonstrated a determination to stand up to LTTEPresident Chandrika Kumaratunga chose her words carefully when she told a Colombo May Day rally that Sri Lanka´s civil war, now dragging on in its thirteenth year, "can be ended" in six months. Too often have leaders of government, both past and present, made pronouncements about a quick end of the conflict, only to have to eat crow. One hopes President Kumaratunga knows what she is talking about, and there are, indeed, indications that her forecast has some basis..The optimism comes in the wake of Riviresa 1 and 2, the code names (meaning ´sunshine´) for the two operations carried out by the Sri Lankan army in the northern Jaffna peninsula. Riviresa 1 ended with the taking of the capital city of the rebel-controlled north. The price was heavy, with some 500 soldiers and many more Tigers killed, and by the time the lion flag was hoisted over Jaffna in December, it had become a ghost town. The Tigers had either coerced or persuaded the residents to abandon the city before the troops marched in..Although less dramatic than Riviresa 1, the second operation was cheap in terms of lives and limbs. Even more indicative of success was the fact that the population did not flee as the military campaign progressed. In Thenmarachchi and Vadamarachchi, two densely populated suburbs of Jaffna that the government was seeking to re-take, the population stayed put. The residents of Valikamam, who had abandoned their homes during Riviresa 1, began returning in large numbers. The government, quoting the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), estimated that as many as 250,000 were back at Valikamam and many were still returning in the first week of May..A war-weary population was demonstrating a determination to stand up to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LITE), and not meekly do as the rebel commandants directed. There were reports of civilians reacting in anger against LTTE cadres who tried to keep them from returning. It is in these acts of the population of the north—showing a desire to finish the war and get back to everyday living—that one has to base the cautious optimism that a turning point has at last been reached..No reporter was allowed in jaffna even as the first phase of Riviresa 2 ended, but the defence ministry released an avalanche of photos and video footage to tell a story that seemed credible enough. "We don´t want to show you something that´s only half over," said Deputy Defence Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte, who is political boss of the armed forces. "We will take you when the job is fully done.".Neither the government nor ordinary Lankans, however, have any illusion that the Tigers are de-fanged. The LTTE retains a frightening terrorist capability, demonstrated most recently on 31 January when they blew up an entire street in Colombo´s plushest commercial district. True, they failed in a major attempt on the Port of Colombo two months later, but even government-controlled newspapers admit that that was more due to luck than to vigilance..Riviresa 2 has seen the Jaffna peninsula totally sealed off, but what must have hurt the LTTE much more is that the blind obedience that it commanded in the area seemed to have vanished. Small wonder, then, that front organisations for the Tigers have begun demanding international mediation and making friendly noises about once-spurned peace negotiations..President Kumaratunga says she is presently conducting a "war for peace". She has unveiled a generous devolution package, put together with the help of Tamil moderates, which she hopes will satisfy the aspirations of most Tamils. But many among the majority Sinhalese, backed by an influential section of the Buddhist clergy, are steadfastly opposed to many provisions in the package, which is now before a parliamentary select committee (see Opinion April 1996). Also, without LTTE participation, any negotiated settlement will be as empty as Jaffna city was when the army marched in..The coming days will be critical. It is only a matter of time before Velupillai Prabhakaran directs his fighters to start the hit-and-run guerilla warfare at which the LTTE excels. The military is short of manpower and will be stretched in the holding operation in the Jaffna peninsula. Also, troops must remain disciplined in the face of likely attacks from behind a civilian shield. Reprisals against civilians by the army, as was common in the earliest stage of the war, will be fatal in the vital battle for the hearts and minds of ordinary people..The concentration of troops in the peninsula has considerably destabilised the eastern province, which was reasonably secure in the time of the previous United National Party (UNP) administration. Both sides are taking losses in frequent guerilla-style incidents in these districts. But the people of the east, populated in almost equal proportions by Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims, are largely anti-LTTE, which is a big advantage for the government as and when it can spare the troops to improve control of the east..This, indeed, could just be the beginning of the end of a civil war that has cost Sri Lanka dearly. But President Kumaratunga, now bedevilled by in-fighting within the ruling alliance, has to walk over a lot of thin ice before consolidating the military´s Riviresa gains. Neither she nor her commanders underestimate the LTTE´s capability, which is why the time is not for the side shows now taking shape. As the President herself said in her May Day speech, "This is a time to restrain ourselves from making demands of various kinds and concentrate on solving the north-east conflict.".But will she be given that chance, both by the opposition and the partners in her ruling People´s Alliance? There are already ominous signs to the contrary.