Nowhere to go

It's only right that you shouldaPlay the way you feel itBut listen carefully to the soundOf your loneliness– Dreams by Fleetwood Mac.New Delhi has lived up to the worst fears of the SAARC Secretariat in Kathmandu. By refusing to confirm the date of the 12th SAARC summit, South Block has made it clear that the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation is not a priority for the biggest country of the region. Pervez Musharraf will have to wait indefinitely for Atal Behari Vajpayee to accept his extended hand this time..Strange as it may seem, nobody seems to be unduly perturbed by the unceremonious postponement of the ceremonial summit that should have taken place in Islamabad in January. In fact, just the opposite has happened; despite the customary noises made about the future of the regional group, a collective sigh of relief can be heard from the various capitals of South Asia. Political correctness may prevent them from saying so publicly, but the prime ministers and presidents do not seem too eager to see each other for various reasons..Mood swingBegum Khaleda Zia of Bangladesh is hardly in a mood to explain the reported rise in Islamic militancy in her country. Even though she has let loose the army to nab 'criminals' (and in the process netted opposition party politicians, among others), she has very little to show for this drastic measure of using the military in a civilian agenda. So when the Pakistan SAARC trip got called off, she headed for Beijing where Jiang Zemin would give her a patient hearing..Up north from Bangladesh, King Jigme Singye Wangchuk of Bhutan is busy scrutinising a constitution that he hopes will make his regime look a little less archaic. Given the panache with which Thimphu's politico-bureaucracy accomplishes everything (including depopulation), perhaps one can expect something innovative, involving the key words 'participation' and 'democracy'. Only question is, will the ruling Ngalong elite really want to share power with the numerically superior Sarchop of the east and the sullen Lhotshampa of the south? My suggestion is that it will take some watching, or rather, watchdogging..The ruling party in New Delhi is gloating at the success of the Godhra experiment in Gujarat. Narendra Modi has delivered the state to the party by riding a wave of hate against all that he considers the 'other'. Which, for the Ahmedabad Hindubaadi, are the so-called pseudo-secularists, human rights groups as well as non-Hindus of every hue. On the foreign policy front, minister Yaswant Sinha is too busy courting the United States to bother much about the neighbourhood. A ceremonial SAARC summit in Pakistan is the last thing that South Block wants at this stage. Mostly important, Messrs Lal Krishna Advani and company need to keep beating the drums of war over cross-border terrorism to further consolidate their hold over the Indian middle class..Even the Maldives would not be too keen to be seen anywhere near Islamabad. Given the speed at which Bush junior's 'axis of evil' is expanding, it should not take long for Pakistan to find itself being with Iraq, North Korea and Iran. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has already declared Pakistan as one of the 'failed or failing' states "whose central government no longer control major parts of [its] territory". It is almost as if they were talking of Afghanistan, and President Abdool Gayoom, of an Islamic state please note, knows when not to get involved with controversial neighbours..Nepali premier Lokendra Bahadur Chand, the current chair of SAARC, is too enmeshed in his own crisis of legitimacy at home to take on the added responsibility of taking the initiative a la Chandrika Kumaratunga, when she was the previous chair, in trying to resuscitate the organisation. The king's brief to the Chand cabinet does not contain a word about SAARC, and it is unlikely that the monarch's handpicked ministers have the will or the wherewithal to pursue a foreign policy agenda at this juncture. The cabinet is just too busy proving its own constitutionality, dealing with the challenge of the Maobaadi and the tussle between the mainstream political parties and the palace to have the time for the association..One would have thought that Pakistan would be anxious to chair a regional organisation, even one with little international credibility. Heading a community of nations would be a matter of prestige for a third world nuclear power. However, notwithstanding the charges flung at New Delhi for unnecessarily scuttling the summit, the Pakistanis do not seem too exercised about it. Courting the US, cultivating the new regime in Afghanistan, improving the relationship with Tehran, keeping the Kashmir controversy alive – these are some of the more pressing preoccupations. So where is the space for regionalism? Had India and Bhutan not dithered in confirming their attendance, Islamabad would have been hard put to manufacture an excuse for not rushing into the chair of a toothless organisation..Perhaps the only person who would have loved to socialise at the summit retreat would have been Ranil Wickremesinghe, ebullient prime minister of Sri Lanka. Fresh from the flush of success in peace negotiations with the Tamil Tigers, Wickremesinghe would have been looking to build his image in the region – if only to spite Chandrika Kumaratunga who built her own international image on the vehicle of SAARC. If Chandrika were to attend, however (given the ongoing tussle for primacy between the premier and president), she could be expected to try and undermine Ranil in her turn. Which leads to the other ponderable – can we expect a time when Prabakaran may find a place at the SAARC table? If so, then let there be representatives of federal units from all the countries of South Asia at the SAARC table, even if not at the head table. That would, truly, be a South Asian organisation..The growing irreverence towards the supposedly annual summit shows the irrelevance of SAARC. Constructed on a feeble framework, the organisation has failed to even indicate a potential of emerging as an effective forum for solidarity creation, let alone conflict prevention. In an age when almost any issue can be interpreted as being bilateral, no institution can survive for long by engaging itself with purely multilateral issues. When the purpose of an annual event is nothing more than socialising – getting the odd handshake in to grab the limelight – how much can one expect from the association? What we need is not socialising, but finding a way in which India and Pakistan (to begin with) can become more sociable towards each other. The ruling elites of the two countries are so alike that it is no wonder that they do not get along. Perhaps South India and the province of Sindh should take the lead in promoting SAARC. Let this be a proposal for the SAARC summit when it meets next – in Islamabad, of course. But future SAARC summits must not be held captive by the capital city elites; they should move to Karachi, Chittagong, Bangalore and – of course – Jaffna..Lost cause.Last month, the China Study Centre in Kathmandu was a talk-shop to deliberate the possibility of bringing China into SAARC. Completely oblivious of the futility of adding a new member to the organisation when even the existing ones are sceptical, speaker after speaker droned on about the importance of the 'China card' in South Asia. Apparently, the Indians were not amused; and even the Chinese were embarrassed by the audacity of the suggestion..Nepal's request to be admitted into Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is another example of the disenchantment with SAARC. Pakistan prefers to present itself as a country (allegedly) strategically located between West, Central and South Asia rather than as a South Asian country..New Delhi was never too keen on SAARC; and now, incredible though it may seem, fully grown men and women in India's politico-military establishment have no hesitation in envisioning South Asian solidarity without Pakistan! Now that South Block has opted for the shortcut to regional hegemony by hanging on to the coat tails of Globocop Bush II, SAARC means even less to it..Since so little seems to be going right for SAARC right now, disbanding it amicably may appear a tempting option. After all, why have an organisation that does not ensure regional security, has not grown into an economic group, and has no potential of evolving into a forum for bilateral dialogue between member countries? Many South Asians do not even know why it exists. That said, what is also true is that mercy killing of an organisation such as SAARC is no less difficult than creating it. The real challenge, actually, lies in re-engineering the enterprise..One way to revive SAARC could be through reverse adaptation, or 'the adjustment of human needs to match the character of available means'. In practical terms, this implies finding suitable functions for an organisation that has stopped having value. This involves a reassessment of the core competencies of the enterprise, and then maximising its use-value..Let us begin by thinking the unthinkable: what would happen if SAARC were to down its shutters? Nothing that one can easily speculate. Now, a corollary: can it do anything that another organisation in the region cannot do? Perhaps there we have more promising answers. SAARC exists, it has earned legitimacy, and even though it has less visibility than it should, it is quite well known by just having being around for so long, since 1985. These are soft strengths, more useful in areas less contested than economics and security. Can one such function be the production of a distinctive South Asian culture, reaching back to the history of the Subcontinent?.It is either that or end of the road for SAARC. A parliament of poets, a platform for philosophers, a forum for freethinkers, a retreat for artists — hardly the stuff that can hold the attention security analysts. But if it is the arts that connect the dead with those yet unborn, the manufacture of a distinct South Asian identity has to begin right there. Let SAARC stop barking up the wrong tree and begin the march up the Tower of Babel instead.