The tenuous future of climate migrants

In the recently concluded third Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stated that roughly 30 million Bangladeshis would become 'climate migrants' due to global warming, a phenomenon which, according to the  Bangladesh Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009, has already begun. In the past too, several climate change reports have stated that Bangladesh will be severely hit by climate change. The Stern Review 2007, for instance, noted that sea-level rise due to climate change could submerge one-fifth of its existing territory and force many to leave their homes in Bangladesh.

Climate-induced migrants are largely affected by slow-onset disasters, occurring due to rising sea levels and increased salination of freshwater which in the long run can make a place uninhabitable. This results in forced displacement which current international law cannot deal with adequately, as laws such as the Convention and Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees (Refugee Convention), International Human Rights Laws and Guiding Principles on International Displacement, do not deal expressly with climate-induced cross border movements. Climate migrants for instance, are unlikely to be considered refugees under the Refugee Convention. And it is unlikely that they will be able to invoke the non-refoulement principle under existing human rights law, which would protect them from being forcibly repatriated to countries where their lives continue to be at risk.