Over the top

This week an international meeting on trafficking of people has been occurring in the Burmese town of Bagan. It is rare to hear a UN staffer congratulate the Burmese government. It is not so much their violent nature but their incompetence which seems often to hold them back.

But one Mr. Parajuli was found to be congratulating the Burmese government of six good years of fighting human trafficking in what is known as the COMMIT process, a grouping dedicated to combatting this trade amongst the six nations of the greater Mekong sub region.

Mr. Parajuli stated a number of measures that the junta had taken to fight trafficking all of them punitive or legal. He did however briefly mention the phrase ‘route causes’. A term which is almost always followed or preceded by ‘tackle’ and is usually as hollow as the greetings at the beginning of such speeches.

But in Burma this is a big question, why is trafficking in persons such a big issue?

I have met quite a few people who have been ‘trafficked’ they are as you’d imagine are usually poor, hard working individuals but on the whole they had not a bad word about the ‘trafficker’ or any more of a bad word than you or I would have for an over priced travel agent. And that’s exactly how I was shot down last time I was quizzing someone on ‘trafficking’ in Malaysia (a big destination), “to you they are traffickers, to us they are travel agents.”

The route causes are however undoubtedly years of economic mismanagement. In Burma cars, phones or pretty much anything useful including gas for cooking is expensive. The only things that are cheap are cigarettes, alcohol, illegal drugs and people’s labour. The irony with the gas is that Burma is a massive exporter of the stuff, with pipelines going, or being built to all of her rapidly developing neighbours.  Burma has been labelled by Nobel Laureate, Joseph Stiglitz as suffering from the ‘mineral curse’. A curse more commonly associated with African nations than those at the apex of the future powerhouses of the world. But it seems that trafficking in  Burma will only increase as the economy in Burma shows no sign of shaking its dubious status as ‘failed’.

Corruption is endemic in Burma in a manner which makes most other south Asian nations seem relatively uncorrupted or the corrupters petty criminals. Some of the most shocking corruption is very much government orchestrated for in Burma everything with value has some pay off for the army; the most remarkable scam is the way in  which the gas is sold, where by the government accounts show the gas being sold on the ‘offiicial’ exchange rate which puts the ‘kyat’ at around 6 to the dollar whilst the ‘unofficial’ rate is closer to a thousand. So while they give 6 ‘kyat’ for every dollar they earn selling gas into the nations coffers, roughly 990 ‘kyat’ is ferreted away into a Singaporean bank account for the junta and their own ends.

I could go on, but the sad fact is that people will continue to be exported along with the minerals for as long as Burma is kept in a state of under development and backwardness by the ‘route cause’ in chief; the military government.

Joseph Allchin

Burma watchers get used to hearing about the grizzly punishments meted out upon the countries dissenting voices. This week however the military junta returned to worrying ways when it sentenced two of its own to death. Others were sentenced under Burma’s seemingly ludite ‘electronics act’. Which is a surprisingly broad act that can be applied to anyone who uses anything ‘tech’.

Majors Win Naing Kyaw and Thura Kyaw were given the death sentence for leaking a report about a weapons shopping trip that a senior junta member made to North Korea and of details of a bizarre tunnel network that Pyongyang is apparently helping to build in Burma, whilst the electronics act was applied to 3 others presumably for having some part in the act of transmitting the data.

It comes only days after a journalist, Hla Hla Win, was jailed for 20 years simply for working for my own organisation, the Democratic Voice of Burma. He was convicted on new year’s eve, a day before the country’s promised election year on its ‘road map to democracy’.

Which is what is so troubling about such sensitivity towards information, the horrible truth, not unlike discovering that, as suspected, one’s wife is having an affair, is that the junta probably have no intention of delivering anything resembling accountable governance or freedom of expression and association.There has, as yet been no official date for an election, with speculation and rumour variously suggesting March or October. With most opposition groups refusing to take part, largely due to the last mass exercise in polling, a referendum on a 2008 constitution, that was roundly dismissed.

Indeed in keeping with Burma’s dictatorial traditions it was illegal to campaign against the constitution and passed with over 98% of the supposed vote, indeed people I have met say that shortly after they were battered by cyclone Nargis survivors names were taken and simply marked as yes votes by the village head, at the behest of the millitary. The document is deeply ‘undemocratic’ insuring that military personnel cannot be prosecuted by civilian courts and guaranteeing that at least 25% of parliamentary seats be assigned to the military amongst other such legal offenses to the notion of democracy.

The serious millitary projects such as the tunnels and the other Korean acquisitions also betray an insincerity towards civilian government. Ever since the pivotal protests of the late 80’s and early 90’s when Aung San Suu Kyi emerged as the leader of the democratic opposition the military has drastically increased numbers of men and expenditure on foreign hardware. The relationship with North Korea has predictably lead to fears that the generals want to join the nuclear club. All have ultimately been to perpetuate the institution of military rule.

People wait eagerly for the ‘elections’, whether with genuine hope or just for any sense of change, anything to break the monotony of military rule, but as two men wait to meet their end for leaking a document, what is probably best, as Robert Mugabe used to say about himself; ‘Watch what I do, not what I say’.

Joseph Allchin

As Copenhagen withered and the world woke up to it as a failure, most who believe in Climate Change turned to a familiar deer in their sights; the west.

The industrialised world it seemed had hijacked the talks against  poor nations, like China (?!?). Which heads the G77 grouping of developing nations. This is a line which should be familiar to anyone who knows the climate discourse in Europe and the west. But China’s positioning as both a ‘developing’ nation and a UNSC seat holder and big player/super power just don’t seem to work that well.

It was apparently China who refused to include targets in the resolution angering many leaders and refusing along with India to set a target of limiting temperature rises to 1.5 c. Further there is a claim that they have a ‘right’ to emit in order to grow. Yet in the next breath they will berate western nations, who 300 years ago decided to burn coal in order to power machines. There appear double standards that attempt to hide an apathy towards the victims of climate change.

If it is all the west’s fault because they did something bad, then China and India shouldn’t follow suit and copy them by demanding a ‘right to emit’, if we all have a ‘right to emit’ then sorry, the recourse to historcism that the west should pay is ludicrous as they had a right to do so. If we consider Chindia’s population and combined economic growth, when they at some point consider themselves ‘developed’ who are they going to have to ‘pay’? A ridiculous notion…

If we accept the science that climate change will destroy the progress and life of our planet we need to accept that change needs to come from all who want to industrialise as well as those who are already industrialised because China, as the world’s largest emitter as it stands will be key as it grows at such a rapid rate. ‘Chindia’ will also hold millions of people who will suffer immensely from the ravages of climate change, as we have already seen in India where a lack of water and flooding are causing severe problems, that will only get worse.

It is not to say that western leaders are not at fault Australia has struggled as has the US, but Obama it seems was by no means entirely at fault having put his neck on the line for the issue. The growth paradigm that Chindia now seems enthralled by is a western notion and it is this which is at fault, but it is a notion adopted and phased into enormity by Chindia.

It may be that Chindia’s leaders, like many right wing western leaders don’t believe in climate change, in which case we are all doomed for there is no hope of seeing the back of them anytime soon or any real civil society pressure and lobbying as in the west, but it is a shame that super powers are shirking the responsibility they have towards their own citizens and those of the world in such a manner, which plays between one moment pleading under development and the next utilisng their status as ’superpowers’.  In the next decade China’s economy could double in size and island nations such as the Maldives could disappear, ie no economic growth, no economy-no life. If Chindia are serious about their super power status’ they should show leadership instead of just blaming the west, leadership and innovation to solve the problem for the century which should ‘belong’ to them but could very well be the century in which the earth ceases to be the benign home we now enjoy.

The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime came up with two interesting points these last few days. The first, startlingly, but none the less quite plausibly was from the bodies head, Antonio Costas, who claimed that drug money may have bailed out banks during the financial melt down, as banks were struggling to find ‘liquidity’ or inter bank loans. Costas claimed that money from drugs may have been absorbed by the banking system to tide them over. Costas claimed in the UK Observer that as much as $352 billion of drug profits were ‘absorbed’ by banks threatened by collapse. If his figures are correct it is not substantially less than the U.S. treasury bail out.

The same organisation also reported on ‘troubling’ developments in Burma where opium cultivation had climbed for a third consecutive year, doubling its cultivation since 2006. Burma is the world’s second largest producer of heroin and illegal opiates after Afghanistan. This comes only a few weeks after it released yearly figures indicating the continued unhindered rise of methamphetamine production in the country with new trade routes opening up to the west into India and beyond. This came despite apparent considerable efforts by international drug agencies, yet UNODC’s Gary Lewis maintained in interview to me that the government of Burma, as many allege, are not working in collusion with drug producers. This is an issue and accusation that has been elaborated by Swedish author and Burma expert Bertil Lintner through decades of research and publication of the very interesting ‘Merchants of Madness’ book. His accusations are that the Burmese junta tolerates and even colludes with allied armed groups in the production of drugs. It is an accusation given credibility by the undiminished nature of the industry in the country and the fiscal failures of virtually all industries in Burma apart from fossil fuel extraction, drugs and people smuggling.

Indeed the illegal drugs industry was hardly impeded by the global economic slowdown, with amphetamines continuing to grow in consumption and production. It is considered to be one of the world’s top five export industries.

So could we now say that not only has the ‘war on drugs’ been lost but the industry, despite being almost entirely in the hands of ‘criminals’, has also saved the global economy? Adding yet another very compelling argument for the legalisaton, regulation and taxation of this lucrative industry. This apparent bank ‘bail out’ give us a window into the tax dollars that the world is losing to the unregulated criminal economy.

Burma is a case in point of an economy where taxation doesn’t follow money or reflect relative wealth and it is also a society where social welfare, education and most sorts of justice are in dire needs, here more than anywhere we can see the need for regulation as markets fund war lords and gangsters as opposed to health care, education and the betterment of society. If Costas is right it is also the collateral in that ‘war’, drug users and the thousands who suffer and perish as a result of its criminal status who have truly paid the price for the bail out.

Joseph Allchin

India’s troubled North East is not only far from the country’s power center it also has an incredibly fragile border with Burma. Northern Burma is, if anything even more chaotic and insurgency riden than the Indian side. As the region grows in strategic importance and as India’s game of brinkmanship with China over strategic influence grows so has her forgiveness and ‘engagement’ with Burma.

This week India’s external affairs minister S. M. Krishna makes his way to Nyapiytaw, Burma’s strange administrative capital for the strangely accornymed BIMSTEC (Something to do with the Bay of Bengal) meeting, a confession is likely to be of more interest in dialogue between the two uncomfortable ‘friends’.

The confession came from the ULFA who put the record straight and confirmed what many had thought; they have bases in Burma and operate out of the country. Whilst even often belligerent and chaotic Bangladesh has been able to rid their territory of the group and detain a few key members, Burma’s near half a million strong military has been unable to.

India has offered joint training excersises, military aid and many other pleasantries but many question whether it is intentions that are arry or capability.

Burma is said to be trying to play off these two Asian giants. Both India and China are competing for gas and oil concessions and so far it seems that China is winning in terms of strategic influence. They have famously tabled less for gas fields than India and still won bids. Some argue its to do with China’s Security Council Seat which has made repeated western attempts at a resolution against Burma’s generals impossible. Others still maintain that there exists a historical memory that runs deeper.

Burmese political analyst Aung Naing Oo put two compelling historical points to me. The first was the colonial history. Britain annexed Burma in a muddled affair a lot later than most of India and despite this it became incredibly prosperous. The British imported a great deal of labour, many Tamils and Bengalis were brought in as labourers and merchants; this influx Naing Oo explained was partly viewed as a ’second occupation’. It was also run as part of British India, not as a separate entity.

The second of note is India’s prior position. Like a role model democracy India initially was heavily supportive of Burma’s democracy movement. India’s intelligence is said to have supported a number of groups including the student army the All Burma Student Democratic Front (ABSDF) who, after the protests in the early 90s were violently crushed and the election results ignored, moved into the jungle to fight. Meanwhile the democracy leader; Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was bestowed the Jawaharlal Nehru Award, which incidentally was first awarded to another Burmese, U Thant, the first Asian Secretary General of the UN, who also ended up on the wrong side of the ’senior general’.

This early Indian support for the democracy movement apparently still lives vindictively in their memory. The whiff of that western humanism and internationalism still apparently lingers on the Indian breath despite years of ‘looking east’ and counter insurgency against Burmese political dissidents.

Another, perhaps even more sinister motive for choosing China is an apparent racism that exists and can perhaps be viewed in conjunction with the first point about ‘the second occupation’. The ‘Kala’ as Burmese colloquially call Indians or people with a dark complexion have lived in Burma probably almost as long as Lord Buddha has been followed. These communities such as the Rohingya in western Burma are often subject to awful, shameless persecution from the military. The Rohingya ‘crisis’ earlier in the year prompted the consul general in Hong Kong to light heartedly dismiss them to a journalist as ‘ugly as ogres’. These communities are no doubt some part of a divide and rule tactic that the generals skillfully adapted from their colonial predecessors and added a personal touch too. Wherever it came from or whatever the issue, it prompted a racial purge in the 60’s and what little we hear from the Rohingya today it is usually of despair and torment.

It is hard to imagine Indian changing her tack anytime soon. The political imperative for competing with China is too great, this macro issue twinned with energy supplies trumps just about everything. Yet the instability flowing in seems no sign of stopping; UNODC recently highlighted India and western routes out of Burma as a growing venture for Burma’s number one entrepreneurs, drug barons.Whilst the same smuggling routes are reportedly of use to another apparent thorn in India’s side the Maoists. Like alot of things in this area much is adorned with mystery and murk, yet threatens to prompt a very Confucian ‘interesting time’

Joseph Allchin

author can be reached at ja@dvb.no