The impact on Southasia of a potential war in Iran.
Read Harsh Pant’s full article on India/Iran relations here.
Himal: Does India have a stated position on the possibility of a preemptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities?
India’s stated position is one of strong opposition to the use of military force against Iran. New Delhi has repeatedly stated that dialogue is the answer and a diplomatic solution must be sought in dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue.
Regardless of any previously stated position, how you would foresee New Delhi reacting in the event of such a strike and/or prolonged war, including potentially with the participation of Western powers?
In the event of a strike or a prolonged war, it is difficult to see what credible options India may have apart from making its opposition clear at various diplomatic forums. The difficulty for India would be greater if the military action would happen with support from the Arab Gulf states. Given India’s high-stakes involvement in the Arab world, New Delhi would not want to antagonize the Arab states too much.
What impact would such a scenario have on Indian/Southasian oil supply and, more broadly, on the region’s economies?
Conflict in the Middle East will have a huge impact on the world economy and South Asian energy dynamic. The world economy has just started limping back to some sort of normalcy. Any disruption in energy supplies from the Middle East has the potential to damage the global economy seriously. India and other South Asian states rely on the region much more than the developed world, so the impact on South Asia would be much greater. The costs of conflict are so high that perhaps it is the only credible deterrent against an all out war in the region.
Read Harsh Pant’s full article on India/Iran relations here.

.jpg)
