In need of a game changer

by Erik Wilson
Two weeks ago, the State Restructuring Commission (SRC) submitted its report and recommendations regarding state division to Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai. The Commission’s report, or perhaps we should say reports (as there was no consensus), unleashed a new wave of protest from ethnic groups who felt that their interests were not being taken into consideration. The past two weeks have shown the SRC for what it truly is, a politicised body whose actions are largely representative of the political impasse that has plagued Nepal for the past five years.
Let’s run through what we know.
Firstly, federalism – along with integration of ex-combatants into the army, governmental restructure and land reform – is one of the main issues that must be resolved before the constitutional deadline in May. Ethnic federalism is seen by many as the key to Nepal’s problems, the tool with which to achieve the ambitious social promises put forth in the country’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement in 2006. Indeed it was ethnic federalism that was meant to undo centuries of exclusion and marginalisation based upon caste, class and a whole host of other factors. Only now is it becoming clear how truly difficult that task is, and will be.
Secondly, we know that two main proposals were put forth on how the country should be federated. The plan, supported by the majority, would divide the country into 11 provinces along ethnic lines, granting property rights to the majority ethnicity in each area. The other proposal would divide the country into 6 provinces largely on north/south lines, allotting 2 southern provinces in the Terai for Madhesis and organising the remaining 4 along economic lines.
The majority plan was met with strong protest upon submission to the PM, especially from members of the Sherpa and Jadan communities, as no provision was made for a state for either community. In its failure to create a state for these ethnic groups, the SRC majority has potentially set the stage for a new fragmentation.
Thirdly, let’s face it, the promulgation of a new constitution is viewed as the yearned for pinnacle of Nepal’s peace process; the document that, once complete, will presumably usher in a new era for Nepal and its citizens, indeed the “New Nepal” sought by many. But ethnic federalism is part of that equation, and here it is 3 months before the constitutional deadline and the government has yet to decide on the proper way to debate the federalism plans, let alone actually begin discussing them. If the parties don’t start to move on this quickly the whole process could be in serious jeopardy.
So what don’t we know?
Firstly, as always, we don’t know if the political parties will be able to navigate their differences and general posturing with regards to the Prime Ministership in time to strike a deal on state structuring. Another deadline extension was requested recently, but with each passing week the May deadline draws closer and the likelihood of completing all these tasks diminishes.
Secondly, it seems uncertain whether the parties will amend the 11 or 6-province model to accommodate for the protesting groups. A previous plan had provided for 14 provinces (including provinces for the Sherpa and Jadan communities) but that was rejected in favor of the 11 province model.
Finally, and I would suggest most importantly – we don’t know how the new state divisions will be received by the Nepali people. We also don’t know how they will be implemented or if it will actually begin to counteract the long entrenched social exclusion and marginalization.
Watching the process unfold it would seem that the situation deserves a healthy level of skepticism. The reports have not been on time and the whole exercise is dangerously behind schedule. The fact that the report was met with protests upon submission should send warning signs to the political parties. Nepali citizens have been waiting since 2006 for a “New Nepal”, one that would confront the past and move forward with bold action. The notion of an ethnically federal state was to drastically change the rules of the game. As it’s going now, the rules may only shift instead of change and frustrations will likely rise anew.



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